Pratt and Whitney’s PW1000G-family inspection program is stabilizing and will soon include engines that power the Airbus A220 and Embraer E2, but the company’s analysis confirms that the number of unscheduled shop visits on these variants will be low.

“For the PW1500 and the PW1900, we will institute a fleet management plan that will largely fit inside the shop visit plans that are already in place for these fleets,” Chris Calio, chief operating officer of Pratt parent RTX, formerly Raytheon Technologies, told investors during a third-quarter (Q3) earnings call. “We believe the financial impact won’t be significant and is contemplated in our current contract estimates and the financial outlook for Pratt.”

Pratt recorded a $2.9 billion charge in Q3 related to the inspection program that targets parts containing contaminated material, in line with expectations set last month when the company detailed its “fleet management plan.”

The plan’s first step targeted about 140 PW1100G engines that power Airbus A320neos for removal by the end of September. With that set of engines now undergoing inspections, attention shifts the next batch within the expected total of 600-700 engines that face unscheduled removals by 2027. Another 500 or so will be pulled as scheduled for routine overhauls, creating more shop-capacity pressure.

RTX executives confirmed that a new set of engines will be flagged by serial number in the coming weeks via service bulletins and other operator communications, with inspections expected to start in early 2024.

“Regulators and air framers are aligned with this recommendation. We expect the service bulletin implementing these actions will be released beginning in November, followed by airworthiness directives,” Calio said. “So, those communications are happening, but you’re going to see that impact early in 2024.”

Aviation Week previously reported that Pratt is targeting late 2023 for issuing the next round of service bulletins with recommended inspection deadlines for certain engines and confirmed check intervals and reduced parts life limits. This round of checks is expected to trigger the peak of Pratt-powered A320neo groundings as engine-shop capacity is filled, unscheduled removals peak, and needed parts production is still ramping up.

“The lion’s share of these incremental shop visits that we’re going to have, the 600 to 700 in that 2023 to 2026 time frame, two-thirds of those are in 2023 and relatively early 2024,” Calio said. “That’s what causes that ... peak of 650” aircraft on the ground, he added.

Groundings of Pratt-powered A320neos steadily rose throughout September as deadlines for the first tranche of engine removals recommended by Pratt and mandated by regulators passed. The figure appears to have stabilized at around 330, or about 25% of the delivered fleet, Aviation Week Fleet Discovery data show. While not all of them are grounded for unscheduled engine checks, the figure of inactive aircraft has nearly doubled since the end of August, pointing to the ramifications of the first batch of removals and inspections.

The engine inspections target parts made from 2015-2021 and identified as having contaminated powder metal (PM) that may cause cracks. Affected parts are high pressure turbine (HPT) stage 1 and 2 disks, high-pressure compressor stage 7 and 8 integrated blade rotors, and aft hubs.

Pratt’s plan includes reducing life limits on the parts to a level that could require repetitive inspections with a year for the most active aircraft. It also is ramping up production of the affected parts so it can replace as many problematic ones as possible with new, full-life components so operators do not face frequent repetitive inspections. But hitting the required production levels will take time.

“Our baseline plan today forecasts second quarter (Q2) 2024 to get to run rate capacity for disk production,” Calio said. “We are working to accelerate this timeline, which will allow us to replace an even larger portion of the fleet with full-life parts.”

Engines coming in are getting either hospital-type “project” visits or full overhauls, depending on several factors. Turn times on the shorter, restorative visits are running at about 35 days, Calio said—far below the 250-300-day projections for the more expansive, materials-intensive full overhauls.

“While project visits will be a smaller portion of the overall shop visits, the turnaround time is encouraging, and our teams are continuing to identify further process improvements,” Calio said.

The company also is ramping up MRO capacity to help handle the overhaul crunch. Pratt’s network of partner shops is on track to grow to 16 by year-end and 19 by 2025, Calio said.

“This will enable the network to be able to conduct more than 2,000 annual shop visits in 2025 to support the global [PW1000G] fleet, a roughly fivefold increase from 2019,” he added.

Pratt’s fleet plan outlined in September focused on PW1100Gs that are an option on A320neos. Recently completed analysis on the A220’s PW1500s and E2 family’s PW1900s projects a far less disruptive scenario than A320neo operators are facing. Reduced inspection intervals and life limits are part of the plan, and they will drive “some” unscheduled inspections and likely extended aircraft groundings starting the first half of 2024, Calio said. “But we believe these will be largely mitigated by the end of the year,” he added.

He did not provide details on how many of the 290s A220s and 80 E2s in service may be affected.

Pratt also revised its V2500 fleet management plan in place for two years. It will add about 100 unscheduled overhauls over the next four years, Calio said. Most will undergo “project work scope” checks. Details will be released in a November service bulletin, he said.

The contaminated PM issue was discovered following a 2020 Vietnam Airlines engine failure traced to a cracked V2500 HPT stage 1 disk. Pratt’s analysis confirmed that PW1000G-family engines and F135s that power the Lockheed Martin F-35 had contaminated parts as well.

Another in-service incident late last year led Pratt to re-examine its data and assumptions. The findings prompted a revamp of its commercial engine inspection recommendations, triggering the new fleet management plans, reduced inspection intervals and life limits, and waves of unscheduled engine removals.

The F-35’s lower usage rates mean the issue is expected to have little or no effect on that fleet.